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The following article was published in our article directory on September 29, 2010.
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Japan's Political System to Face the Challenges of Speculative Yen

Article Category: Advice

Author Name: Amanda xzh

See all the way to the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen hovered fall, reminds me of an old World War II, the Japanese film "Imperial Army" officers ritual suicide scene. The officer will find a secluded where no one, with the precise depth and length of the knife wound to the dead will be backward in the right direction. Governments and central banks in Japan between the Kabuki dance song, like a tacit agreement, but also reflect the same attitudes: There is no resistance to accept the inevitable fate for the glorious moment of death, but also to pay attention to die clean, do not dust alight.

The Japanese Government is to the Chinese government to intervene against China's foreign exchange reserves in Japanese government bonds increased (JGB) share. Japanese government seems to think that China's practice of the U.S. dollar fell against the yen exchange rate of the important reasons. In fact, the minimum rate of China's policy changes, there is not enough to cause significant impact. Japanese government did not find the key - there are too many financial community, hold hands too much liquidity around waiting in the wings. Now the U.S. is considering a second round of quantitative easing monetary policy (QE2), while Greece also contributed to the debt crisis speculators abandon the euro. In Japan, most of the time no response to external stimuli. Widely believed that Japan can stand the test of speculation, simply hit the left cheek to right cheek can also be extended over to you.

Greenspan era, the release of too much liquidity to the financial sector. This attracted a large number of people caught in it, these people have to operate a computer can be nothing other than trading, day trading is something there, pounding the keyboard. Poor economic prospects, and major economies, interest rates close to zero, so eager to change the financial markets, they now can neither access to the development dividend through secondary trading, but also can not use interest rate differentials by arbitrage profit. All exports are seeking liquidity. Currently, all for the appreciation of the yen reached a consensus. To the steady flow of liquidity comes in, you do not need external forces to promote the.

I remember the case in 1995, when the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen fell to 1:80 the following, there were many so-called "experts" speaking on television, why the U.S. dollar against the yen and down a reasonable rate should be 1:60. And the yen sank into a bear market, to 1998, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen and a ratio of more than one hundred and forty. Now the trend of the yen, in my opinion, the situation in 1995 were similar. There are so many hot money speculation ready approach, the rate of appreciation of the yen is likely to exceed even 1995. However, the lack of reality based on the appreciation of the yen, and thus difficult to maintain for long. If the Fed does not adopt a new policy of quantitative easing, the dollar exchange rate should be closer to a reasonable 100 yen instead of 80 yen. And if the Fed adopted a new quantitative easing monetary policy, then 1 U.S. dollar to 90 yen exchange rate may be reasonable. By choosing to pass up the yen to 1 U.S. dollar as well as 50 yen 60 yen level, this is just making it way to market speculation.

The theoretical basis for the appreciation of the yen is still the same old. Deflation in Japan to promote its domestic price level, so that the yen's rise in real purchasing power than previously. This allows appreciation of the yen into a seemingly logical thing. However, deflation blow to any economy is devastating, one was destroyed economy, how could the continued appreciation of the currency it?

At present, Japan's basic economic data is not very optimistic. Measure of the Japanese economy Unlike the U.S., economic development is good or bad, is not the main measure of unemployment, because the Japanese companies will choose to sacrifice profits rather than dismissal. Measure the quality of economic development of Japan's main criteria is that an enterprise's profitability. The current U.S. dollar against the yen, it will seriously affect Japan's most important industries - automobile manufacturing, making the Japanese auto industry, a serious decline in profitability.

The basis of Japan's economic development today, is much weaker than in 1995. At that time the Japanese electronics companies and auto companies dominate the international market. By now, the former has been ill, because the market has shifted the orientation of consumer mobile Internet devices. The latter has also started struggling. Japanese companies have for years not to develop a blockbuster. From a macro perspective, the decline in Japan's labor force also made Japan's economic growth prospects greatly reduced. Level of government debt in Japan has reached 2 times the 1995 level.

Speculative demand for the yen volatility period is so obvious, like the present, the Bank of Japan should increase the money supply. They should be on the market to "sterilization" policy, by increasing the money supply can achieve their goals. This manipulation of exchange rates with essentially different and should be referred to as "speculative elimination strategy." After the departure of speculators, etc., after the Bank of Japan may seek to recover funds invested. Now this period, the legalistic approach is unwise.

Generally, it should happen will happen. Japan's political system, they decided to challenge in the face of speculative yen, only inaction. The current speculative fever will one day be the past.

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