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The following article was published in our article directory on September 29, 2010.
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Cuba Suddenly Reformed Change

Article Category: Opinions

Author Name: xia zihui

The choice of political age after the strongman

The reason why this reform Cuba the same as the dry thunder attracted world attention, including a very important point is that it is time to announce the sudden and unprecedented nature of reform.

Although Cuba's new round of reform has been launched since 2008, but has been bland. Raul While reducing government control and open commodity markets, encouraging agricultural production, introduced a series of policy, but since the implementation of these policies since the effect is not significant, it is basically not touched a strong vested interests in the state sector. Therefore, Raul also left open to the world, mild and moderate reformer image. But in the international community that Cuba will be a protracted time of gradual reform, this reform movement was Raul's so fast coming out.

From the direct incentive to see, in 2009 economic growth rate of 1.4% in Cuba, far below the 6% expected in terms of Raul is indeed a government stimulus. Taking into account the global financial crisis in 2009 the survival of the Cuban sugar, tobacco and tourism industry poses a huge impact, but the external economic environment of low growth rate is also not constitute a total negation of the gradual reform of the reasons. Therefore, the real reason for speed but also to promote reform within the community increased from Cuba to find the pressure for change.

Comes to Cuba's economic reforms began, the brother Raul Castro Fidel Castro 1994 during the reign of the real starting point. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1992, Cuba lost 75% of sudden foreign trade, 40% of the GDP and 90% of the energy source, when the Cuban economy is almost a lost cause.

Crisis prompted the first time Cuba's economic reform began. Reform measures at the time to relax foreign investment conditions covered, expanding the area of investment, the establishment of individual and private enterprises, allowing individuals to hold foreign currency, to streamline government and open agricultural markets, the implementation of price reform and other major aspects of taxation. Just quickly out of the economic collapse of Cuba's plight, a bright future market economy when Fidel Castro come to a screeching halt for the reform, explicitly declared that the Government is not considered a market economy, the economic reform measures but the current system an "adjustment" only.

Figuratively speaking, the Cuba since 1994, opened the window, the door was shut. Cuba also felt that the market economy, globalization and the charm, but with all that kept the state of alienation. Cuba's ideological judge determines the limited nature of reform policies. From 1994 onwards, calls for radical reform toward Cuba there have been three main waves, respectively, in 1995, 2003 and 2008. Cuban government gradually opened the domestic industry, encouraging foreign investment, but also allows the existence of the private economy, but that all this is done under strict limits.

16 years of reform, Cuba's private economy is still only about 5% to the GDP, enough to prove that the era of Fidel Castro's Cuba reform remains the main purpose is to deal with the crisis and did not intend to market economy. However, commoners and the elite of Cuba in 16 years, accumulated enough desire and consensus of a wide range of reforms, but also formed a strong enough political force. Open style of Raul Castro Once the assumption of a clear reform and willingness to reform the long-repressed needs naturally gushing out, showing the acceleration run. This trend is the era of strongman politics since the end inevitable.
Reform of the unknown

Combing the human history of the development system, "and then breaking up" and "set and then breaking down" the reform on behalf of two basic logic.

"Broken and then set" I hope to break the inherent institutional arrangements quickly, through community self-regulation and balance role to promote the adjustment of bottom-up social structures. Such a reform rapidly, fast, thorough, however costly, may cause an unbearable social pain. Collapse in Eastern Europe and the shock therapy is its typical representative.

"Li and then break" focuses on progressive reform, hopes to cultivate new interest groups and social strata approach to gradually dilute the influence of traditional interest groups, and finally achieve the restructuring and replacement of old flat.

Reform of large layoffs in Cuba, one of its measures to reform itself, is a country must go through the stage. However, if the historical process of reform into the study of Cuba, retrenchment measures should be taken at appropriate stages of the proper measures may have to face a lot of questions.

Cuba now, the private economy has experienced 16 years of development is still very poor, neither a major adjustment in the state economy during the economic stability the country has played the role of stabilizer, and can not divert half of big job cuts brought about 50 million labor force. Once the speed is too fast this time of reform, is likely to result in the existing social order can not afford unrest. • Raul Castro taking into account the 79-year-old has, coupled with his elder brother Fidel Castro in poor health • Cuba once the flaws of the reform, the state is to have veteran shore up their position, do have people reasons for concern.

It is also taking into account the potential instability of large-scale layoffs, while the Cuban government announced layoffs, will Cuba's domestic economic categories, 120 kinds of business licenses issued 250,000, covers areas shoemaker, household appliances maintenance worker, barber division, translation professions. But two factors that greatly restricted the effectiveness of protective measures to play.

First of all, the Cuban government to open up these posts, with a strong professional. Such a short time in six months, the Cuban Government had time to raise sufficient funds to find enough trained personnel, the community needs to make accurate forecasts are a big problem. Wealth effect brought about new jobs will take some time to figure out, but long-term savings of low wages is not strong and not get unemployment compensation, workers, the plight is "immediate effect" of.

Secondly, and more important point is that the business license issued by Cuba, concentrated in the service sector, has nothing to do with the large-scale industrial production. As we all know, industry is the solution to social phenomena the best choice for large-scale unemployment. Although the Cuban government for 16 years of reform and opening up a large number of state-owned enterprises, but changing its policy to discourage foreign investment, domestic private enterprises doldrums. Can be said that the imbalance of the industrial structure has seriously hampered the Cuban social management layoffs.

Of course, Cuba's great leap naturally cuts the risk, but not the simplistic assertion that the Cuban reform must not succeed. The universal experience of reform from the national point of view, as long as the reform of maturity behind the support of the social security system, social absorptive capacity of the disordered state there is security. Thus, social protection reform measure of the strength of the risk has become an important indicator of the size.

Cuba since the socialist revolution, has always been rooted in society's overall security. In Cuba, not only medical care, education, pension by the State fully responsible for the supply of living material is arranged by the government. However, given the limited state financial resources, the quality of these social security measures is difficult to guarantee.

According to 2009 data, Cuba's low-cost monthly ration by the state enough for daily use per capita of about a week use. This level of protection has been considered in terms of the Cuban government make every effort to full employment in the referendum, nearly 8 years, the unemployment rate never exceeded 3% of the cases, the subsidies are probably able to meet the basic needs of residents.

However, once the implementation of large layoffs, the Cuban government will soon face the risk of breaking the social security system. Necessary requirement for surge in unemployed people into a corresponding increase in benefits. Raul reform is to achieve a final "rejection package" effect, or use an input for an additional investment, it is unknown the.

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