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The following article was published in our article directory on September 19, 2010.
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Asian emerging market economies economic crisis will loom

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Foreign trade surplus is growing, increasing friction, increasing pressure on the currency appreciation; domestic market prices of assets such as real estate increasingly out of control, macro-control weakness, domestic demand growth and thus has not effectively replaced external demand as the main force for economic growth, this group is growing phenomenon In East Asia, the spread of emerging market economies. International Monetary Fund report predicted: South Korea's economic growth to rise to 6.1%, per capita GDP is expected back on the 20 thousand U.S. dollars. At the same time, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has said in earlier times: "South Korea's economic growth results have yet to benefit all the people, which I am a heavy heart."

In fact, only South Korea, and many other Asian emerging market economies are also facing similar problems. Such as Singapore's rapid economic growth this year, the trade surplus increased, the currency appreciation pressures. But the relationship to the national economy and real estate prices are often out of control, which has recently produced a policy reducing the proportion of mortgage loans. Perhaps the time being, it is also not really an East Asian export-oriented economy, "group" disease, even during this economic crisis, economic recovery may be beneficial to gather popularity, such as South Korea recently announced a series of property boost measures to promoting economic recovery as soon as possible. However, long term, as world economic growth, a new pole, the East Asian economic group similar economic symptoms, may be exactly what we need early attention and to develop appropriate responses.

Either Korea or Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia, both along the Japan's export-oriented economy then catch up mode received extraordinary development. Japan after World War II on the one hand to accept Western aid to rebuild post-war economic recovery; the other hand, the technology to speed up their catch, and strive to technological advancement and product innovation through the occupation of the global market. It is through these two points, after the war, Japan was able to rise rapidly. Later, South Korea, Singapore and other Asian tigers follow the example of Japan, also achieved rapid economic take-off and allowed to enter the ranks of moderately developed countries, which led the accession of more countries in East Asia. These countries and regions take advantage of cheap labor and resources to develop export-oriented economy, gradually eliminate poverty, and look forward to further achieve the year as Asian tigers as the economic and social achievements.

But the reality is cruel, first of all, the East Asian emerging market economies face external economic and political environment, have been significantly different than the year in Japan. European and American countries have begun to look at traditional East Asian emerging market economies, the economic dominance of its global challenges and address these emerging economies, developed a lot of response. Developed emerging market economies in East Asia's overall strategy ideas can be summed up as "restricted development", both share a certain range of its social and economic development outcomes, including low-cost investment products and funds back to Europe and the United States; the same time to take the currency appreciation, means of technology export restrictions limit their development within the scope of control in order to ensure the development of European and American developed countries, the relative advantages and economic and political appeal. Obama did not put forward clashing with the East Asian countries "export revitalization" program?

Second, the East Asian emerging market economies within the technological progress, and endogenous growth in consumption-based sustained economic growth in power far less than the Japanese. Is the so-called "internal cause is the fundamental driving force for the development of things", which is most crucial. In fact, even before World War II Japan as early as in technology, corporate power and comprehensive national side a place in the ranks of developed countries. After World War II has been able to quickly recover and become the second largest economy, its industrial economic base has played a fundamental role. South Korea and other East Asian emerging market economies, technological and industrial base is relatively weak in many. From germinal question is: once early in the development of low-end labor-intensive industry to the need to upgrade the bottleneck period of sustained economic growth momentum will be limited. Perhaps it was this, in the economic structure adjustment, in order to maintain the momentum of rapid economic growth, emerging market economies in East Asia generally chosen only after Japan entered the rise of real estate developed to support the economy.

For the East Asian authoritarian, patriarchal system and other internal economic development model, the real estate economy is able to effectively stimulate domestic demand, but also to the real economy further technological upgrading and restructuring the economy of the buffer. From this point of view, this policy has its own rationality. But at the same economic policies that have huge potential negative impact of rapid growth once the real estate market and emerging market countries, economic growth, currency appreciation combination of asset bubbles, then even the emerging markets authoritarian mode of governance is difficult effective control. Once the real estate market prices exceed the regulators expect rapid rise, it will trigger a series of social problems, including excessive price increases with the asset bubble in real estate prices are too high cause of young middle-class anxiety, the excessive speculation in the capital goods market to bring financial systemic risk and so on.

In addition, upgrading the industrial structure of the real estate economy provides a buffer period may not be able to really play a role. In many cases, struggling at the moment rather contribute to the inertia of enterprises and individuals, but can not stimulate its innovative momentum. Once the real estate bubble economy into a predicament, and technological progress is not achieved, then the Asian emerging market economies will be the country's economic crisis looms. By this time, American and European countries to shift the sub-prime crisis, emerging market economies to increase the impact of trade intensity, then the emerging market countries are likely to fall into the very bad situation.

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Keywords: petrol rc cars,coach signature handbag,automatic ice maker,

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