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The following article was published in our article directory on August 31, 2010.
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Global Economic Slowdown Suppress the Price of Copper

Article Category: Marketing

Author Name: Amanda xzh

European economic growth better than expected, but the outlook remains uncertain

June 7 Euro Group finalized the 440 billion euros aid loan programs all the details, and once again urged Member States to intensify efforts to reduce the budget deficit in order to defend market confidence, resulting in the debt crisis and the real economy in Europe to establish a firewall between , which makes the market for European sovereign debt crises has greatly eased concerns. Not only that, the EU also has 91 large and medium sized banks stress test, which tested 91 EU banking assets accounted for 65% of the total assets of the banking sector over total bank assets tested the scale of EU banking assets More than 50%. 23 July the European Committee on Banking Supervision published data showed a moderate in the assessment of secondary bond market bottom and a new round of the combined effect of volatility, the accepted stress testing of one of 91 banks average capital ratio of 9.2 %, 6% higher than the compliance level of 3.2 percentage points. Only seven banks a capital ratio of less than 6%, failed the test. This is the assumption that the EU economy to zero growth this year, shrinking by 0.4% next year to do the test case. The results will undoubtedly further increase the confidence of the market in Europe.

4,5 month in the European sovereign debt crisis culminated in the market worried that the European economy will slip significantly, but the data released in August also showed some concern over this. Eurostat data showed the euro zone second quarter GDP rose 1.0%, Central, for the second quarter of 2006, the largest since the increase in the chain, up 1.7%, the highest since the first quarter of 2008 the largest increase over the previous year. The previous second-quarter GDP is expected to ring the euro zone rose 0.7%, up 1.4%. The euro area than in the first quarter GDP growth of 0.2%, Central, up 0.6%. Growth momentum in Europe from euro terms, or mainly from Germany, Germany's second-quarter GDP growth of 2.2%, the highest since German reunification in 1990, the biggest thing the chain growth, and far higher than economists expected a 1.4% increase. German economic think tank IMK said that as Germany's second-quarter economic growth data was surprisingly strong economic growth in Germany this year will reach 2.5% -3%, higher than the previously estimated 2.0%.

But we also see that overall economic growth in the euro area a better situation, the growth of countries is very uneven, the European countries the second quarter GDP data show that the strong GDP growth of 2.2% in Germany, but the Greek GDP is still shrinking 1.5% Spain's economy grew by only 0.2%. Because the debt crisis in Europe and the euro, and to help export-oriented growth in the German economy is strong, but exports little to help Greece and other countries is not large. Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) recently released survey shows that people's expectations of the German economy declined in August, in August of economic expectations index fell to 14.0 in July to 21.2. This result is much lower than the 21.2 economists expected. But the present situation index rose to 44.3 from 14.6 sharply. ZEW said that Germany's strong economic growth in the second quarter may not be sustainable.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the euro zone economy is strong, but he also warned that the current economic growth is unlikely to continue after the summer, in the second half economic growth will be far lower than the second quarter. He said the ECB was not in the "declare victory" because the economic outlook remains uncertain.

U.S. economic growth slowing, the Fed maintained the same policy

Weak U.S. economic data, concerns for the market, data released in August showed U.S. housing starts growth in July than expected, but building permits, suggesting possible future construction downturn. July housing starts at an annual rate of 546,000 units, an increase of 1.7%. Economists expect housing starts increased 0.2% annualized rate of 550,000 units. July building permits decreased 3.1% annualized rate of 565,000 units. Economists expected an increase of 2.1% annualized rate of 586,000 units. This indicated that construction activity in coming months will be a lack of vitality. U.S. home builders reported data showed the U.S. in August will NAHB House Price Index fell to 13, below the July 14, from March 2009 to its lowest level since. Data showed that U.S. construction companies continued confidence in the weak, despite the very low mortgage rates, but economic uncertainty is still so buyers away from the housing market. U.S. retail sales rebounded in July, but there are still signs of economic weakness. U.S. Department of Commerce released data showed U.S. retail sales in July increased 0.4%, while analysts had previously forecast growth of 0.5%. 11 U.S. Department of Commerce announced in June the U.S. trade deficit reached 49.9 billion U.S. dollars, a deficit of 42 billion U.S. dollars expected, the highest since October 2008 the highest deficit level. In addition to weakness in U.S. consumption, the U.S. job market is one aspect of the world's most worried about. In July, the U.S. non-farm sector jobs decreased 131,000, the second consecutive month of negative growth. U.S. Department of Labor on August 19 according to data released, the United States on August 14 when the number of claims for unemployment benefits rose by 1.2 million to 50.0 million for the year ended November 14 the highest level since the week, is expected to 476 000. The United States on August 14 when the number of claims for unemployment benefits increased average around 8,000, to 48.25 million. Last week, the number of U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly, and within 9 months hit their highest level, making the labor market on the downturn, "worse."

Difficult to sustain the U.S. economic recovery led the market once the Fed will once again start the quantitative easing policy expectations. In the Fed on Aug. 11 statement that the interest rate meeting, the Committee will maintain the federal funds rate target in the 0-0.25% range, and continue to expect economic conditions (including lower resource utilization, suppressed and stable inflation trends inflation expectations) may ensure that the federal funds rate for some time maintained at very low levels. To help support economic environment of price stability in the recovery, the Commission will adopt the agency debt and mortgage-backed bond principal invested in long-term debt of the way, so the Fed equity holdings remain at current levels. The Committee will continue to extend the maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds the Fed positions. Overall, the Fed is to maintain the current level of security holders, that policy did not quit, no further expansion of the policy. This move by the support the dollar.

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