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The following article was published in our article directory on August 30, 2010.
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The International Economy From Recovery to Recession

Article Category: World Affairs

Author Name: xia zihui

Deteriorating economic situation in the four areas

The current international economic recovery, stagnant fully demonstrated in the past two years, a serious global financial crisis, unprecedented period of national rescue measures introduced on the economic stimulus is short, these policies of exogenous factors and not converted into sustainable, self-growth endogenous factors.

When the fiscal stimulus policy expires, due to financial support for weakened, not only the economic return to the situation, but also adds a new sovereign debt crisis impediments. The financial crisis will harm the world economy is sustained, the situation becomes more complex and difficult. And 2008, 2009, In comparison, the current international economic operating conditions had not improved and some even deteriorated.

First, the EU highlighted the negative impact of debt crisis, fiscal policy tight.

Debt crisis in Europe is a large-scale relief measures over the past two years, causing overdraft Financial serious consequences, but also the euro zone single currency policy and fiscal easing regulatory consequences. A longer period before 2007, the European Central Bank, driven by low interest rates, borrowing heavily in some countries, resulting in swelling budget deficit, unsustainable fiscal position.

Looking back on the 80s and 90s in Latin America and the Asian financial crisis and ways to alleviate the debt problem is no more than inflation and currency depreciation. For the euro-zone countries, for political interests and a whole, both approaches will work. The only alternative is to pay through the downsizing of the public sector, reform of the pension and retirement system, reducing subsidies to enterprises and residents, as well as tax increases and other means to reduce the financial actual expenditure.

However, debts, restructuring the financial balance is not possible to achieve in the short term, this means that the major developed countries in the coming years need to tighten fiscal policy. This will seriously jeopardize consumer confidence, on the already weak consumer spending is undoubtedly worse, will relapse into recession in the euro zone economy.

Second, international financial pressure and the risk of re-zoom, easy monetary policy can not return to normal delays.

European debt crisis not only within the euro area financial hardship, and threatening other countries and global banking and financial system, international financial pressure and the risk of causing surge. Stress testing in European banks, the banking sector eased tensions. However, the duration of sovereign debt crisis and its spread in the world, there is still a great degree of uncertainty, investors have worries on the market outlook, the world's major stock market volatility fell, credit standards continue to tighten, borrowers will drop, the economy operating conditions difficult to improve, to become a major world economic constraints.

United States, Japan and Europe's major central banks lower interest rates can not return to normal recently, may maintain a longer period. Moreover, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank restart quantitative easing monetary policy, a large number of acquisitions of public debt to deal with outstanding issues and sovereign debt crises banking.

Third, secondary real estate market bottom, aid policy conceding.

In the policy stimulus, the United States, Britain and other countries once the housing market rebound. With the preferential policy expires, uncertain employment and income, despite the current low mortgage rates, but housing demand fell sharply, sales plummeted, falling house prices, housing market back to earth. In July, the U.S. new home and existing home sales fell to a record low, British home prices. Contraction of residential construction and investment activities, construction and real estate market, related industries and rising unemployment, shrinking housing market's drag on the U.S., UK and other major developed countries, economic growth, chronic disease.

Fourth, frequent fluctuations in exchange rates, mainly developing countries, currency appreciation was evident.

By the sovereign debt crisis, since the beginning of substantial depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar; and the yen as risk aversion traditional tools, with the market investor risk aversion increased demand for yen, a sharp appreciation; Brazil, India, South Korea Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asia-Pacific and Latin America, strong economic growth in major developing countries, gradually tightening monetary policy, and interest rate differentials between the major developed countries, currency exchange rate fluctuations in apparent appreciation of the impact will export.

For China's economy, if the past two years, the world economic situation facing our country is extremely serious, then the external environment facing our country is very complex. China's economic growth fell in the second quarter, is consistent with China's macro-control expected slowdown in global economic growth in line with the overall trend. In view of this situation, macro-control policies also need to size up the situation.

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