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The following article was published in our article directory on August 22, 2010.
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Article Category: Business Management
Author Name: Amanda xzh
As the crisis spread to other countries in the euro zone, who will step outside the Greek footsteps has been a focus of attention. To this end, EU and its member states to take to the short term, "fire" huge relief, focusing on the medium-term fiscal austerity and deficit reduction to correct structural defects in the euro area three types of long-term reform measures. The implementation of these three measures will play a positive role in stabilizing the debt crisis.
First, the short term, the Greek debt crisis, the EU Joint International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued 110 billion euros of Greek relief mechanism and 750 billion euros of European stability mechanism. The former is designed to provide financial support to Greece, to ensure that Greece will not be a debt default, Greece has now been launched and the first document to provide relief funds; the latter for the euro-zone countries to build a "firewall" and be well rescue package, the current The mechanism of the final details have been finalized, but there is no euro-zone countries require assistance.
EU Centre for European Policy Studies think-tank director Daniel Gross believes that these two mechanisms should be able to meet the Greek and other euro-zone "Pig Five" rescue the next few years likely need to play to stabilize the debt crisis "condition" role. In addition, the European Central Bank previously announced, will be necessary to buy euro-zone government bonds, the unusual also for the euro area "Pig Five" of bottom pocket. Currently, the market fears are fading Greece, even if other countries followed the steps of Greece, the existing aid mechanism will also be launched in time to affect the scope of control as small as possible.
Second, the medium term, the EU member states have introduced austerity measures of the next few years, the clear objective of fiscal consolidation and concrete measures to resolve the debt crisis that is, the fundamental way to rebuild market confidence.
Gross believes that although Greece and other countries in terms of achieving the goal to reduce the deficit is not easy, but the European historical experience, a substantial deficit reduction can be achieved, but it may take at least five years. And even if it cut the deficit does not mean you solid financial, and even may lead to a substantial increase in public debt.
Finally, the long term, the EU is developing a blueprint for future reform, want to block this debt crisis, structural flaws exposed. To this end, within the European Union formed the permanent President of the Council of Europe, led by Van Rompuy, the finance ministers participating in the panel, from the strengthening fiscal discipline, elimination of macroeconomic imbalances, the establishment of permanent crisis response mechanisms to strengthen economic policy coordination and other aspects reform. While these reforms are considered distant water puzzled thirst, but the fundamental strategy may help to rebuild market confidence, the euro remedy deficiencies.
There is risk of escalation of the debt crisis, but the euro will not collapse
Now, the European Union and a series of measures introduced by Member States of the European sovereign debt crisis has not been significantly alleviated, the market may further spread of the crisis concerns still exist. Panic investors mainly from the following aspects.
First of all, solve the debt crisis behind hidden in the deep-seated problems take time. Gross believes that in the euro area "pig Five", the Spanish financial situation is grim, the real estate bubble burst, the financial system healthy worrying, is now considered most likely to suffer the fate of Greece step. In this case, the sovereign debt crisis will be overwhelming the Spanish financial industry's "last straw" as fears that the focus, but based on European financial markets close association, this may trigger a new round of financial crisis.
Secondly, the European Union's ability to successful fiscal consolidation is still questionable. States fiscal austerity program introduced in compliance difficult to schedule. At the macroeconomic level, the implementation of fiscal austerity program of economic recovery is being dragged down the pace of the countries is not conducive to expanding revenue to deficit reduction; at a political level, fiscal austerity plans have been popular in some countries strongly opposed, making demonstrations of social unrest increased risks, the Government's ability to withstand political pressure and the remaining questions. Can be said that the introduction of relief mechanism is to win breathing space for the relevant countries, but the eventual goal of fiscal consolidation requires not only financial constraints and promote economic recovery grasp the precise balance between, but also sufficient political courage.
Finally, the Greek debt crisis, there are some non-rational market response to any sign of trouble might have caused a big uproar. Extremely fragile investor confidence in the circumstances, the debt crises in Europe the possibility of volatility is still significant.
Thus, while the European Union introduced a series of measures will contribute to easing the debt crisis in Europe, but the crisis is inevitable ups and downs and may even be further upgraded. The next one to two years of fiscal consolidation efforts in the countries can be effective, the EU can successfully get out of debt crises.
However, despite the debt crisis in Europe is still the possibility of escalation can not be ruled out, but the disintegration of the euro zone may thus speculation is hard to set up individual euro area countries are forced into a very small possibility of debt restructuring. Luxembourg, former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Jacques • Phillips recently said in an interview, the euro zone as an important result of European integration, the disintegration or not an economic issue, but a political decision, not any European politician allow this to happen, the collapse of the euro does not meet the interests of European countries.
Gross believes that the reform ideas from the EU Member States point of view, allowing individual euro area countries debt restructuring is not a "political" option, triggered a chain reaction because the market will only exacerbate worries. To avoid recurrence of similar crises, the EU has so far advocated strengthening fiscal discipline, fiscal discipline has not put forward once again failure should be how to deal with the issue of sovereignty breach of contract. However, the "member states can not fall," the basic idea means the euro area in the future must have the support of the Financial Union, EU leaders in the financial integration and to allow members of non-compliance with the financial discipline to choose between default.
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