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The following article was published in our article directory on August 13, 2010.
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Russia's Suspension of Grain Exports will Not Trigger Crisis

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on the 9th meeting of the Bureau, the government said, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture's latest forecast, Russia's grain production from 60 million to 65 million tons. This is the third time the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reduced the value of Russia's annual grain output forecast. Putin said that even the most pessimistic forecasts hold, 60 million tons of grain production can meet domestic demand.

Earlier, the Russian government announced a temporary ban exports of food and food products, continued growth in the Russian domestic food prices go down along the international grain market experienced significant volatility in prices began to fall. Analysts pointed out that the Russian government aims to stabilize domestic food prices and reduce inflationary pressures. But some people think, Russian grain reserves sufficient, the government should ban food exports, as the case early. FAO release said global wheat reserves are still adequate, Russia suspended grain exports will not cause the crisis.

Inhibiting grain export ban

5 Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced in the government work conference, Russia from August 15 to December 31 prohibits the export of food and food products. Prohibitions related to wheat, mixed wheat, barley, rye, corn, wheat flour, wheat and rye flour mixed. Russian media that the Russian Government's move is mainly to curb rising food prices in Russia, to ensure domestic food and feed supply.

Sustained more than one month of unusually high temperatures caused by severe drought and forest fires that Russian agriculture suffered heavy losses, more than 10.2 million hectares of crops crops (equivalent to the Russian national crop planting area of 1 / 5). Russian Ministry of Agriculture expects the Russian grain output this year than previous years to reduce 1 / 4. Situation affected the impact of the recent Russian food prices rose more than 30% in parts of flour, bread and other agricultural prices has also risen. At the same time, due to feed shortages, the Russian part of the farm animals slaughtered in advance also to reduce the number of livestock. Putin said that although Russia has adequate food reserves, but now need to take measures to curb food prices, support the development of animal husbandry and food reserves for next year.

Global grain stocks sufficient

Starting from June this year, global wheat prices have risen 50%. August 5, global food prices soaring again. Chicago Board of Trade for wheat to 7.8575 U.S. dollars per bushel, the daily limit price closed at a record 23 months since a new high. In the European market for wheat, also rose 11%, more than 230 euros per ton. However, the prohibition of grain exports by the Russian news impact, 6 the global wheat market prices fell from a high point. Chicago Board of Trade for wheat tumbled 60 cents a day to the price per bushel to close at 7.2575 U.S. dollars. Russia's domestic grain prices have suddenly dropped 10% that day.

6 FAO news release said that while Russia and other major wheat exporter Liang Shi failure, the global wheat reserves sufficient, the situation is better than the 2007-2008 food crisis in the future the price will be difficult to continue to rise, Shangwuliyou worried about a new round of global food crisis. FAO said that in two consecutive record high, the international wheat stocks are added to fill the gap caused by the current cut. More importantly, the traditional wheat stocks held by exporters, that is mainly used to deal with emergencies is still adequate buffer stock. Including the macroeconomic environment and market dynamics, including other food external factors led to 2007-2008, the main reason for soaring international food prices, but these factors is not yet a threat.

Middle East buyers over budget

Introduction of grain export ban for Russia, Russian domestic parties differently. Russian Ministry of Agriculture officials Chekmarev that, while the overall supply of adequate food in Russia, but the prohibition of food exports to various risks can be controlled to a minimum. The Russian economy expert Mironov believes that abnormal high temperature and dry weather will not affect the continuity of the Russian economy, Russia is still possible to bumper harvest next year, when Russia will face the old problem of food surplus. Some experts said there is no evidence that Russian inflation is accelerating up signs. For questions, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said Russia's grain harvest under the circumstances the Government may reconsider the issue of food exports. Russian News Agency quoted government sources as saying the Russian government could fall this year to shorten or extend to reconsider ban on grain exports.

Putting aside the ban on food exports to Russia whether to move, but some countries ban the Middle
East has brought tangible impact. Egyptian Trade Minister Rashid 9, said the Russian grain export ban caused the price of wheat in the recent volatility in the 2010-2011 fiscal year may bring to Egypt nearly 40 million Egyptian pounds (about 705 million U.S. dollars) in additional budget expenditure .

Middle East countries, traditional buyers of wheat in Russia, the Russian government after the temporary ban on grain exports, the Middle East recently began actively seeking sources from other regions. With food experts believe that this change will lead directly to these countries than-expected budget.

As a major importer of wheat, Egypt imported from other countries each year about 600 million tons of wheat, of which about half comes from Russia. Currently, Egypt is seeking to re-arrange the export ban with Russia signed before the promulgation of 54 million tons of wheat supply contract for the implementation of Egypt that the contract should still perform. Rashid stressed: "We hope to resume when the cargo is still in accordance with previously agreed price of the contract."

At the same time, Egypt has purchased from France by 24 million tons of wheat to replenish inventory and respond to wheat prices. In addition, the major wheat procurement agencies in Egypt - Egypt General recently adjusted the supply of goods the import of wheat in the port of loading and unloading process rules, allowing loading of wheat more ports for cargo handling in order to import wheat from the more countries.

As another Middle East, Saudi wheat importer, the annual demand of about 2.8 million tons of wheat. Saudi Ministry of Agriculture is expected to take into account the impact of domestic wheat production declined in 2010, total wheat imports should be 200 million tons to meet domestic demand. For the Russian side by the impact of drought and fire the decision to stop the export of grain, food grain Director General of Saudi Arabia Walid told local media that Saudi Arabia has been a month ago, 99 million tonnes of wheat imports, so that by 2011 4 months before the wheat reserves sufficient to meet domestic market demand, the Russian ban on exports of grain to Saudi Arabia in the short term will not affect market supply of food.

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